AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 26, 2026. In the third week of May, weekly average prices rose in most major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Lower wind energy production and higher demand in some markets supported this trend. The main European markets registered record solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in May, while TTF gas futures reached their highest price since April 8 before declining.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 18, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest increase, 28%, followed by the Italian and French markets with rises of 19% and 11%, respectively. The Spanish market registered the smallest increase, 2.2%, while the Portuguese market rose by 9.4%. The French and Spanish markets extended their growth streak to a third consecutive week, while Germany and Italy registered gains for a second straight week.
During the week, the main analyzed markets reached record solar photovoltaic energy production levels for a day in May. On May 20, the Italian and Portuguese markets registered their highest solar energy production for a day in this month, with 160 GWh and 28 GWh, respectively. On the same day, the Spanish market registered its second highest photovoltaic energy production for a day in May, with 227 GWh. On May 22, the French market reached its all‑time record solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in May, with 169 GWh. Meanwhile, on Monday, May 25, the German market reached its highest solar energy production for a day in this month, with 480 GWh, which also became the second highest production ever for this technology.
For the week of May 25, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to higher production in the Italian, German and Spanish markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the third week of May, wind energy production fell in the main analyzed European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the steepest decline, 57%, while the Italian market registered the smallest drop, 13%. Spain, Portugal and France reduced wind energy production by 28%, 30% and 33%, respectively. The Portuguese market extended its decline to a second consecutive week.
On Friday, May 22, the Italian market reached its highest wind energy production for a day in May, with 131 GWh.
For the last week of May, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to higher production in the German market. By contrast, the forecasts anticipate lower wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula, France and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of May 18, electricity demand increased in most major electricity markets compared to the previous week. The German market registered the largest rise, 4.2%, followed by the Belgian market with a 3.9% increase. The Iberian Peninsula registered increases of 1.7% in Spain and 1.8% in Portugal. By contrast, the Italian, French and British markets registered declines and reversed the upward trend from the previous two weeks. The British market registered the largest drop, 5.8%, while the Italian market showed the smallest decline, 0.1%. The French market fell by 1.3%.
During the week, average temperatures increased across the main analyzed markets. Germany registered the largest rise, 7.0 °C, followed by increases of 6.8 °C in Great Britain, 6.5 °C in Belgium and 6.1 °C in France. Italy registered the smallest increase, 2.7 °C, while Portugal and Spain registered rises of 4.6 °C and 5.1 °C, respectively.
During the week, the return to regular business activity after the national holiday on May 14, Ascension Day, boosted demand in the German and Belgian markets. On the other hand, higher temperatures compared to the previous week reduced electricity demand in France, Great Britain and Italy.
For the week of May 25, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to higher demand in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. By contrast, the forecasts anticipate lower demand in Germany, Belgium, Great Britain and France, influenced by the May 25 public holiday, Whit Monday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of May, the main European electricity markets reached their highest daily prices on Monday, May 18, and then registered price declines later in the week. However, weekly average prices increased compared to the previous week in most European electricity markets. The Spanish, Portuguese and Nordic markets stood out as exceptions, with price decreases of 2.7%, 2.9% and 19%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Italian market registered the smallest increase, at just 0.1%. In contrast, the French market registered the largest percentage price increase, 11%. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 3.3% in the British market and 7.9% in the Belgian market.
In the week of May 18, weekly averages exceeded €75/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Spanish, Portuguese and French markets stood out as exceptions, with averages of €48.48/MWh, €48.53/MWh and €48.94/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the Italian and British markets registered the highest weekly averages, €116.31/MWh and €123.33/MWh, respectively. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €75.79/MWh in the Nordic market to €105.42/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, May 24, the Spanish, French, Nordic and Portuguese markets registered prices below €30/MWh. On that day, the Nordic market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €8.40/MWh. This marked its lowest price since April 6.
Meanwhile, the German, British, Italian and Dutch markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh in most sessions during the third week of May. The Belgian and Nordic markets also registered prices above €100/MWh in some sessions that week. On Monday, May 18, the British market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €141.25/MWh, its highest average since March 24. On the same day, the German, Belgian and Dutch markets registered their highest daily prices since April 2, at €138.95/MWh, €133.63/MWh and €136.09/MWh, respectively.
In the week of May 18, higher weekly gas prices and lower wind energy production pushed European electricity market prices upward. In some cases, higher demand also contributed to the increase.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices could rise in the French, Spanish, Italian and Portuguese markets in the fourth week of May, influenced by lower wind energy production and higher demand in most of them. By contrast, prices could decline in markets such as Germany, where demand will fall while wind and solar energy production will increase. However, gas price trends will also shape the evolution of European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $112.10/bbl, on Monday, May 18. During the rest of the third week of May, prices declined until they hit the weekly low of $102.58/bbl on Thursday, May 21. On Friday, May 22, these futures rebounded slightly and settled at $103.54/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 5.2% below the previous Friday’s level.
Expectations of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the possibility of a partial recovery in crude oil supply pushed prices downward during the third week of May. In addition, progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran and lower concern over prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz contributed to the decline in Brent oil futures.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, prices increased at the start of the third week of May. On Tuesday, May 19, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €51.82/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the highest price since April 8. Prices later moved downward. As a result, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price on Friday, May 22, at €48.68/MWh. This price stood 3.0% below the previous Friday’s level.
Developments in negotiations between the United States and Iran and lower concern over disruptions to liquefied natural gas supply drove prices lower during the second half of the week. In addition, high temperatures and lower gas demand in Europe helped ease upward pressure on TTF gas futures.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, settlement prices declined at the start of the third week of May and reached €74.97/t on Tuesday, May 19. Prices then climbed to €75.42/t and, after another decline, hit the weekly low of €74.95/t on Thursday, May 21. In the last session of the week, prices rebounded and these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €76.94/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 1.7% above the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, May 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 66th edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition featured Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy communicator and consultant, as guest speaker. The webinar analyzed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and their impact on energy storage, as well as the role of batteries, storage and hybridization in the electricity system, including revenues and opportunities. The event also presented success case studies in hybridization.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.