AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 1, 2026. In the fourth week of May, weekly average prices in most major European electricity markets fell compared to the previous week and generally remained below €95/MWh. Higher solar photovoltaic energy production and lower gas prices supported this trend, although declining wind energy production and stronger electricity demand pushed prices higher in France, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula. Major European markets set new alltime records for solar photovoltaic energy production, while CO₂ futures reached their highest settlement price since February 10.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of May 25, solar photovoltaic energy production increased across the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Germany and Spain registered the largest gains, with production rising 17% in both markets. Italy registered the smallest increase, 2.6%, while France and Portugal registered gains of 13% and 16%, respectively. France and Spain extended their streak of weekly increases to four consecutive weeks, while Germany and Italy registered their third straight week of growth. Portugal continued its upward trend for a second consecutive week.
Throughout the week, the analyzed markets achieved new solar photovoltaic energy production records. On May 26, Italy reached its highest solar energy production ever registered for a day in May, producing 161 GWh. On May 28, Germany and France set new alltime solar photovoltaic energy production records with 503 GWh and 179 GWh, respectively. On May 29, the Iberian markets established their new alltime solar photovoltaic energy production records, with Spain producing 265 GWh and Portugal 32 GWh.
For the week of June 1, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to higher production in the Italian market. In contrast, solar photovoltaic energy production will decline in Germany and Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the fourth week of May, wind energy production increased in Germany and Portugal compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, 14%, while Portugal registered a modest gain, 0.2%.
Meanwhile, Italy, France and Spain extended their decline in wind energy production to a second consecutive week. Italy registered the largest drop, 50%, followed by France with a 24% decrease. Spain registered the smallest decline, 6.1%.
For the first week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to higher wind energy production across all analyzed markets compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the fourth week of May, electricity demand increased in most major markets compared to the previous week. Italy registered the largest increase, 8.7%, followed by Spain, with an increase of 7.1%. France, Belgium and Portugal also registered gains of 1.0%, 1.4% and 2.9%, respectively. Demand in the Iberian Peninsula and Belgium continued to rise for a second consecutive week.
By contrast, Germany and Great Britain registered lower demand during the week. The British market registered the largest decline, 3.9%, marking its second consecutive weekly decrease. Demand in Germany fell by 3.4%.
Average temperatures increased across all analyzed markets during the week. France registered the largest rise, 5.4 °C, followed by Belgium, Italy and Great Britain with increases of 4.7 °C, 4.3 °C and 4.1 °C, respectively. Spain registered the smallest increase, 2.4 °C, while Portugal and Germany registered increases of 2.9 °C and 3.3 °C, respectively.
The Whit Monday holiday on May 25, observed in Germany, France, Great Britain, Belgium and some regions of Spain, reduced electricity demand on that day. However, higher average temperatures compared to the previous week boosted electricity consumption and offset the impact of reduced business activity at the beginning of the week in France and Great Britain.
For the first week of June, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in the German and British markets. In contrast, forecasts indicate lower demand in France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Italy. National holidays will contribute to lower demand in Italy and Portugal, specifically Republic Day on June 2 in Italy and Corpus Christi on June 4 in Portugal.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
The fourth week of May began with price increases in most major European electricity markets. However, in many cases, prices remained below the highest levels registered during the previous week and, in addition, declined during the final sessions of the week. As a result, weekly average prices fell in most European electricity markets compared to the previous week. Italy, Spain, Portugal and France represented the exceptions, with price increases of 6.2%, 25%, 25% and 27%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Nordic market registered the largest percentage price decline, 36%. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices decreased between 1.1% in the British market and 10% in the German market.
In the week of May 25, weekly average prices remained below €95/MWh in most European electricity markets. The British and Italian markets represented the exceptions, with averages of €121.97/MWh and €123.58/MWh, respectively. The Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €48.37/MWh. In the remaining markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €60.70/MWh in Spain and Portugal to €94.90/MWh in Germany.
Regarding daily prices, the Spanish, French, Nordic and Portuguese markets registered at least one daily price below €35/MWh during the fourth week of May. On May 27, the Nordic market registered the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €21.97/MWh.
Conversely, daily prices remained above €100/MWh throughout the week in the British and Italian markets. Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands also registered prices above €100/MWh on May 28 and 29. On May 27, Italy registered the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €134.53/MWh.
In the week of May 25, a lower weekly gas price and higher solar energy production exerted downward pressure on European electricity market prices. In some markets, lower demand and stronger wind energy production, particularly in Germany, reinforced this trend. However, declining wind energy production in France, Italy and the Iberian Peninsula, combined with higher demand, drove prices upward in France, Italy, Spain and Portugal.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will rise in most major European electricity markets during the first week of June, supported by lower solar energy production and higher demand in some cases. However, prices will likely decrease in France and Italy due to weaker demand and stronger wind energy production. Italy will also benefit from higher solar energy production. Gas prices will continue to influence European electricity market prices throughout the first week of June.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
During the fourth week of May, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the FrontMonth in the ICE market remained below $100/bbl. On Tuesday, May 26, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $99.58/bbl. Prices then moved lower. On Friday, May 29, Brent oil futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, $92.05/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 11% below the previous Friday’s level and marked the lowest value since April 18.
Although geopolitical tensions persisted, expectations of progress toward a peace agreement between the United States and Iran contributed to lower Brent oil futures prices during the fourth week of May.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the FrontMonth, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €45.43/MWh, on Monday, May 25. After increasing 4.5% the following day, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €47.47/MWh, on Tuesday, May 26. During the remainder of the week, prices stayed below €47/MWh. On Friday, May 29, TTF gas futures settled at €46.00/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this represented a decline of 5.5% compared to the previous Friday.
The conflict in the Middle East continued to influence the trend in TTF gas futures prices during the fourth week of May. Expectations of an agreement between the United States and Iran exerted downward pressure on prices, keeping them below €50/MWh. However, low European storage levels and higher demand driven by high temperatures limited further declines.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €76.77/t, on Monday, May 25. These futures then followed an upward trend throughout the rest of the week. As a result, on Friday, May 29, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €80.63/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price stood 4.8% above the previous Friday’s level and marked the highest settlement price since February 10.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets, batteries, PPA and renewable energy in Europe
On Thursday, June 18, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 67th edition of its monthly webinar series. Speakers from Engie Spain will participate for the eighth time in the series. The webinar will examine recent developments in European energy markets and the prospects for the second half of 2026, opportunities and challenges for renewable energy growth, current conditions and trends in Spain’s PPA market, and prospects for battery energy storage.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
