AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 9, 2026. The snap general election called for November 29 opens a new political chapter at a significant moment for the energy sector. Many of the decisions taken during the next legislature will affect investments with a useful life of several decades. Renewables, storage, grids, nuclear, industry and new sources of demand all need visibility, regulatory stability and technical, long-term planning.
Political timescales and investment timescales
The call for a general election opens a new period of debate on Spain’s economic and energy priorities. The Congress of Deputies and the Senate were dissolved by Royal Decree 806/2026 of October 5, and the election will be held on November 29.
For the energy sector, however, the time horizons are very different from political cycles. A solar photovoltaic or wind farm, a battery, a grid infrastructure or an industrial facility is planned, financed and operated over periods that can span several decades. The investment decisions taken today will be shaped by how the market, regulation, demand and the generation mix evolve over a horizon that stretches well beyond the next legislature.
This gap between political timescales and investment timescales makes stability, predictability and continuity of planning particularly important. This does not mean that regulation should not evolve. Economic, technological and geopolitical circumstances change, and the regulatory framework must be able to adapt. But the larger the volume of investment required and the longer the payback periods of those investments, the more important it is to have clear rules and to be able to anticipate the direction of change.
A transformation that runs to 2030 and beyond
Spain will face the next legislature in the middle of a transformation of its electricity system. The National Energy and Climate Plan, NECP 2023-2030, envisages a system by the end of this decade with 81% renewable electricity generation, 22.5 GW of storage and 19 GW of self-consumption, as well as a substantial increase in electrification.
The NECP also projects that electricity demand will grow by 34% in 2030 compared to 2019 and that electrification of the economy will reach 35% of final energy. Meeting these targets requires generation, storage, grids and new demand to be developed at the same time.
The next legislature will therefore cover decisive years for reaching these targets and will have to manage several issues that will shape the configuration of the system for much longer.
The role of nuclear energy
One of the areas that will continue to attract attention is nuclear energy. In August 2026, Order TED/864/2026 renewed the operating licence for the two units of the Almaraz nuclear power plant until June 8, 2030. This decision changed the dates previously planned for this plant, while the scenario set out in the planning still envisages a progressive reduction in nuclear capacity over the coming years.
The decisions taken on the nuclear phase-out calendar will have implications for the generation mix, the availability of firm capacity, emissions, imports and exports and, in certain circumstances, electricity market prices.
The issue will need to be analysed by jointly considering security of supply, system costs, the evolution of demand and the pace at which renewables, storage and other sources of flexibility are added.
Renewables and storage: from deployment to integration
The development of renewables and storage will be another of the main focal points of the coming years. The growth of photovoltaic and wind generation is transforming the hourly profile of the market. As renewable production increases, so does the importance of having flexibility to shift energy between hours, reduce curtailment, respond to periods of low or negative prices and cover the needs of the system when renewable generation falls.
The NECP target of 22.5 GW of energy storage by 2030 reflects the scale of the planned change. In addition, a significant part of the investment is already under way. At the end of 2025, MITECO allocated €818 million to 126 storage projects that, once in operation, will add 2.2 GW of capacity. The selected projects are mainly hybrid storage and stand-alone batteries.
Over the coming years, it will be important for storage deployment to advance in step with the growth of renewables. Permitting, grid access and connection, hybridisation and the evolution of the various markets in which batteries can participate will determine the profitability of projects and, therefore, the pace of their development.
The capacity market now enters its development phase
Order TED/966/2026, published in the BOE on September 17 and in force since the following day, formally created a capacity market for the mainland electricity system. Its aim is to address potential adequacy problems that could put security of supply at risk, by ensuring the availability of sufficient firm capacity.
The mechanism provides for competitive procedures to contract capacity and is designed so that generation, storage and demand can all participate, with both existing facilities and new projects, provided they meet the established requirements.
The approval of the order is, however, only the starting point. The planned auctions still need to be designed and called, firm capacity needs defined, and various aspects of how the mechanism works specified.
Much of this implementation will take place during the next legislature. For investments in storage, dispatchable generation and other sources of flexibility, the evolution of the capacity market will be especially relevant because it can add a new revenue stream to those obtained in the wholesale market and in balancing services.
Grids at the centre of the transformation
The transformation of the electricity system will also depend on having electricity grids able to integrate new generation, storage and demand at the same time. The scale of the challenge has grown. The latest proposal for planning the transmission grid to 2030, updated after reviewing more than 2500 submissions, raises the planned investment to over €17 000 million, 30% more than the proposal initially put out for public consultation.
New demand plays a particularly prominent role. Some 41% of the requests received during the planning process were related to demand, compared to 40% associated with generation and 19% with storage.
Following the consultation process, the number of grid positions planned to serve new demand also increased. The planning also includes more substations and lines and a larger volume of upgrades to existing infrastructure.
These figures reflect an important shift. The challenge of connecting new renewable generation is now joined by that of creating capacity for new industries, data centers, electrification of ports and railways, storage, hydrogen production and other new sources of demand.
New regulatory tools are being introduced alongside this process. In July 2026, the CNMC approved the resolution establishing flexible access permits for demand to the transmission and distribution grids, a formula designed to facilitate new connections when firm access cannot initially be granted under the requested conditions.
Grid planning and regulation will therefore be one of the decisive factors in whether the planned projects can materialise.
Demand is growing again
The evolution of electricity demand will be another of the variables shaping the future needs of the system. After several years of subdued growth, 2026 data show a clearer upward trend. In the first nine months of the year, electricity demand in Spain rose by 3.2% in gross terms compared to the same period of 2025, according to Red Eléctrica. Once adjusted for temperature and working-day effects, growth was 1.8%.
Sustained demand growth will be important for the electrification process and also for integrating the increase in renewable generation. Higher demand during hours of high solar and wind energy production can help reduce curtailment and episodes of very low or negative prices, and limit the cannibalisation of prices captured by renewable plants.
Industrial electrification, electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen production and data centers could considerably change both the level and the profile of demand over the coming years.
Turning connection requests and announced projects into real consumption will depend, among other factors, on grid availability, administrative timelines and the competitiveness of energy supply.
Energy and industrial competitiveness
Energy policy in the next legislature will also be closely linked to the competitiveness of industry. Spain has abundant renewable resources and the potential to considerably increase its renewable electricity generation. Turning this potential into a competitive advantage for the economy, however, requires energy to reach consumers on competitive terms and with sufficient predictability.
Supply costs, taxation, grids, long-term contracting mechanisms, PPA, self-consumption, storage and flexibility are among the variables that shape the investment decisions of industry and large consumers.
It will also be important to strike a balance between different objectives: facilitating new generation and new demand, guaranteeing security of supply, developing the necessary infrastructure, making progress on decarbonisation and limiting costs for consumers as a whole.
30-year investments versus four-year political cycles
The November 29 election will decide the composition of the next Parliament and, subsequently, of the future Government. Specific policies will depend on the election result and on the majorities that can be formed.
But regardless of who governs, a large part of the system’s challenges will remain: integrating large volumes of renewables, developing storage and flexibility, adapting the grids, managing the future of nuclear generation, responding to demand growth and ensuring that Spain’s renewable potential helps strengthen the competitiveness of the economy. These are issues whose effects extend far beyond a single legislature.
A battery, a renewable plant, a grid infrastructure or a new industrial facility requires investments with payback horizons of many years. Financing them means building scenarios for the future evolution of revenues, costs and risks. That is why regulatory stability is necessary. Stability, however, does not mean an absence of change. It means that changes are predictable, follow coherent planning and allow companies and investors to anticipate the direction in which the system is heading.
Long-term scenarios for decisions that outlast a legislature: the role of AleaGreen and AleaConsulting
In a sector where many investments have horizons of twenty, thirty or even forty years, the ability to provide visibility will be one of the factors determining the pace of investment and the transformation of the Spanish electricity system over the next decade. That visibility requires translating each open question, whether the nuclear calendar, storage deployment, capacity market auctions, grid planning or demand growth, into quantitative scenarios for prices, revenues and risks.
AleaGreen, the division of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting specialised in long-term forecasts, produces electricity market price curves with horizons of up to 40 years and hourly granularity, with scenarios and probabilistic metrics that make it possible to assess the bankability of renewable, hybrid and storage projects, as well as PPA financing, under different assumptions about how the system will evolve. AleaConsulting, for its part, supports developers, investors, financial institutions and large consumers with regulatory and expert reports, forecast audits, due diligence and renewable portfolio valuation.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting