AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, October 30, 2023. In the last week of October, the weekly average price on the Nord Pool market was the highest since mid-June. Between October 26 and 30, the Iberian Peninsula’s MIBEL market reached the lowest price of all markets, supported by high wind energy generation. TTF gas futures remained at the €50/MWh level for the third consecutive week.
Solar photovoltaic, solar thermoelectric and wind energy production
In the week of October 23, most major European electricity markets experienced a decrease in solar energy production compared to the previous week. The German market experienced the largest decrease of 36%. The Spanish market registered the smallest decrease of 0.5%. In contrast, the Portuguese and Italian markets recorded increases in solar energy production of 7.8% and 5.9% respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s solar energy production forecasts for the week of October 30, an increase is expected in Germany and Spain. The Italian market will be the exception to this trend.
In the week of October 23, wind energy production increased in the Southern European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase with 31%. In the Spanish and Portuguese markets, production increased by 9.8% and 3.6% respectively. In Germany, wind energy production decreased by 14% and in France by 1.3%. Despite the decline in weekly production, 843 GWh of wind energy was generated in Germany on October 29, the highest level since mid-March.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s wind energy production forecasts for the week of October 30, the production using this technology will increase in all analyzed markets except the Iberian Peninsula.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
In the week of October 23, all major European markets saw an increase in electricity demand compared to the previous week. The increases ranged from 0.8% in the German market to 8.8% in the Dutch market.
During the same period, average temperatures decreased in most of the markets analyzed, with the exception of Germany. The Iberian Peninsula and France registered temperature decreases of more than 1°C. In the remaining markets, the average temperature decrease did not exceed 0.8°C.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s demand forecasts, only Portugal and the UK are expected to see an increase in demand for the week of October 30. In the rest of the analyzed markets, a decrease in demand is expected due to the All Saints’ Day holiday on November 1.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the week of October 23, prices on the EPEX SPOT markets in Central Europe and the N2EX market in the UK remained around €120/MWh until Friday 27. Over the weekend, prices fell to an average of €70/MWh on Saturday 28, and €27/MWh on Sunday 28. Compared to the previous week’s prices, the weekly average on these markets increased by an average of 8.2%.
Prices on the MIBEL market in Spain and Portugal, the IPEX market in Italy and the Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries varied. The Italian market registered the highest prices among the analyzed markets, with an average price of €131.09/MWh during the week and a decrease of 12% compared to the previous week.
The Iberian market registered the lowest prices, with a weekly average of €56.38/MWh in Spain and €56.35/MWh in Portugal. Between October 26 and 30, MIBEL reached the lowest prices of all markets, supported by high wind energy production. The daily average price reached a low of €6.45/MWh on Friday 28. This is the lowest price since January. There were three hours with zero price on Friday and four on Saturday.
The Nordic market showed a markedly different development to the rest of the markets. Prices continued the upward trend of the previous week and reached a weekly average of €60.36/MWh, an increase of 171% compared to the previous week. This was the week with the highest prices since mid-June.
Most markets, with the exception of the Italian and Nordic markets, registered zero or negative hourly prices over the weekend. The UK market registered the lowest prices on Saturday 28, with £-3.90/MWh between 4:00 and 7:00. The highest hourly price of the week was €215.02/MWh, registered on the Iberian market between 20:00 and 21:00 on Monday 23. This is the highest hourly price in the last ten months, with the exception of the €220.00/MWh registered on Monday of the previous week.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting‘s price forecasts indicate that in the first week of November, prices will fall in most of the European electricity markets analyzed, influenced by the November 1 holiday and the consequent drop in demand.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
In the last week of October, front-month Brent oil futures on the ICE market declined slightly from the previous week. Prices ranged between $88 and $90, with a weekly average of $89.29 per barrel, 2.0% lower than the previous week’s average. On Friday, October 27, futures closed at $90.48 per barrel, the highest price of the week.
The escalation of the conflict in Israel led to the price rally at the end of the week and will be one of the issues that will drive oil prices in early November.
Prices for Front-Month TTF gas futures on the ICE market remain in the €50/MWh range for the third consecutive week. The average price for the last full week of October was €50.36/MWh, slightly above the previous week’s average by 0.9%.
Gas reserves in European Union countries are practically full, so there is no real fear of supply problems during the winter. Even with these inventories, prices remain high due to a nervous market caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Chevron has announced the end of the labor dispute at the Australian LNG plant. This should ease the pressure on gas prices, but in the short term, developments in the Israeli conflict will determine the trend.
Prices of CO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2023 continue the downward trend of the previous week. The futures started the week at €80.50 per ton, the settlement price on Monday 23, and closed on Friday at €79.35 per ton. This is part of a general downward trend in prices since the end of February, when prices reached €100 per ton. Since then, prices have been falling and moving away from the €100/ton level.Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and the financing and valuation of renewable energy projects
The next webinar in the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting and AleaGreen will be held on November 16. The topics of the webinar will be the prospects for European energy markets for winter 2023-2024 and the vision of the future for batteries and energy storage. On this occasion, Luis Marquina de Soto, President of AEPIBAL, the Business Association of Batteries and Energy Storage, will join the webinar.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.