AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 20, 2025. In an increasingly complex and decentralised electricity system, forecasts of demand, renewable energy generation and energy market prices have become an essential tool for efficient operation and strategic decision making. All players in the sector need reliable scenarios to anticipate market volatility, optimise their operations and ensure system stability.
In a constantly changing energy system, forecasting has become an essential tool for all players in the electricity sector. With the exponential growth of renewable energies, the electrification of key sectors and the incorporation of new technologies such as battery energy storage, reliable future scenarios are more critical than ever.
Generation companies, retailers, large consumers, grid operators, storage asset managers and also distribution companies need to anticipate changes in order to optimise operations, reduce economic risks and guarantee the stability of the electricity system.
Distributors, for example, require accurate demand forecasts at the local level to plan their grid, avoid congestion and size investments. With increasing distributed generation and self‑consumption, variability increases and their decisions must be supported by reliable hourly forecasts.
On the other hand, intraday markets and ancillary services are becoming increasingly important in a system dominated by unmanageable sources such as wind or sun. Forecasts allow agents to actively participate in these markets, adjusting their hourly position according to the evolution of renewable energy generation and electricity demand.
Intraday markets, where energy can be bought or sold just hours before delivery, offer opportunities to optimise the position of generators, consumers and battery operators. But to take advantage of these opportunity windows, updated and accurate forecasts are necessary.
As for ancillary services, these are essential to ensure real‑time system balance. Batteries, because of their rapid response capacity, are increasingly present in these services. Their efficient management requires dynamic forecasts of both prices and grid conditions to decide whether to participate in the spot market, in ancillary services, or both.
Forecasting is not a theoretical exercise, but a practical tool in the service of operation and strategy. For grid operators, they allow them to optimise the dispatch and hourly scheduling of plants and batteries, reduce deviation costs and, in the long term, ensure the technical and economic balance of the system. For operators of production and storage plants, forecasts allow them to take advantage of opportunities in the various electricity markets and to assess the future profitability of investment projects.
Long-term price forecast for the Iberian MIBEL electricity market carried out at the end of October 2010 by AleaSoft.Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Future articles will discuss in more depth how these forecasts are constructed, what methodologies are used, what time horizons exist and how they are specifically applied in the case of renewable storage and hybridisation projects.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
This Thursday, May22, a new edition of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s monthly webinars will be held, reaching the 55th edition. On this occasion, Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy, will be one of the guest speakers, to address energy storage with batteries. During the webinar, topics such as the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the impact of the degree of use on the profitability of batteries, their financial optimisation and regulatory aspects, including subsidies and capacity payments, will be discussed. As usual, the recent evolution of European energy markets and their prospects will also be analysed.
The analysis table of the webinar in Spanish will also include the participation of Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former Minister of the Spanish Government and former President of Red Eléctrica. Among the topics to be discussed will be hybridisation with wind energy, ancillary services and electricity transmission and distribution grids.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
