AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 19, 2025. In the third week of May, the main European electricity markets showed mixed evolution, although in most of them weekly prices were lower than the previous week. Despite the increase in gas and CO2 prices, higher renewable energy generation and lower demand allowed prices to be contained and lowered in some cases. The Portuguese market once again broke its historical record for daily photovoltaic energy production and the German and Italian markets reached the highest production with this technology for a day in May.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 12, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the main European electricity markets. France and Italy registered the largest increases, 19% and 18% respectively. The Iberian Peninsula registered its second consecutive week of growth, with increases of 9.2% in Spain and 13% in Portugal. Germany registered the smallest growth, 7.1%, and continued its upward trend for the fourth consecutive week.
During the week, Germany, France, Portugal and Italy registered solar photovoltaic energy production records. On Tuesday, May 13, Germany reached its highest solar photovoltaic energy production for a day in May, with 424 GWh, which was also the second highest value in its history. France registered its second and third highest production values for a day in May, with 121 GWh on May 14 and 16. On Thursday, May 15, the Portuguese market broke its historical record for solar energy production again, with 26 GWh. Italy reached its highest production for a day in May, with 147 GWh, on Sunday, May 18.
For the week of May 19, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, generation using this technology will increase in Spain, but it will fall in Italy and Germany.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the third week of May, wind energy production increased in the German, Portuguese and Italian markets compared to the previous week. Germany registered the largest increase, 43%, and maintained the upward trend for the third consecutive week. Italy registered the smallest increase, 3.3%, while Portugal reached a rise of 12%. On the other hand, Spain and France registered decreases in production with this technology of 29% and 45%, respectively.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, in the week of May 19, production with this technology will increase in the main European markets analyzed.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
During the week of May 12, electricity demand declined in most major European markets compared to the previous week. Great Britain registered the largest decrease, 3.7%, while demand in Germany and Italy fell by 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively. Spain registered the smallest drop, 0.8%. On the other hand, Portugal, France and Belgium registered demand increases for the second consecutive week. This time, Portugal led the increases, with a rise of 2.2%, followed by France, with 1.1%, and Belgium, with 0.5%.
Average temperatures increased in all analyzed markets compared to the previous week. Great Britain and Belgium registered the largest rises, 2.7 °C and 2.6 °C, respectively. Italy registered the smallest increase, 0.2 °C. In Spain, Portugal, Germany, and France, temperature increases ranged from 1.6 °C in Spain to 1.8 °C in France.
The rise in average temperatures contributed to the drop in demand during the week. In Spain, the May 15 public holiday, San Isidro Day, celebrated in Madrid, also influenced the decrease in demand. In contrast, in the French market, the recovery in work activity after the May 8 public holiday, Day of the Victory in Europe, contributed to the increase in demand.
In the week of May 19, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will rise in the markets of Spain, Italy and Great Britain. In Portugal, demand will remain similar to the previous week, while it will decrease in Germany, France and Belgium.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the third week of May, average prices in the main European electricity markets showed a mixed performance compared to the previous week. The MIBEL market of Spain and the EPEX SPOT market of France reached the largest percentage price increases, 47% and 140%, respectively. Prices also rose in the N2EX market of the United Kingdom and the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium, but to a lesser extent, by 1.7% and 5.2%, respectively. On the other hand, in the rest of the main European electricity markets, prices declined. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries registered the largest decrease, 66%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 1.5% in the IPEX market of Italy and 25% in the MIBEL market of Portugal.
In the week of May 12, weekly averages exceeded €60/MWh in most major European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Spanish, Nordic, French and Portuguese markets, whose averages were €18.19/MWh, €21.65/MWh, €23.10/MWh and €25.57/MWh, respectively. In contrast, the British and Italian markets registered the highest weekly averages, €92.22/MWh and €95.80/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €64.46/MWh in the Belgian market to €68.61/MWh in the German market.
The Portuguese Government increased the electricity import capacity from Spain between May 12 and 19, although limited to 1000 MW from 09:00 to 19:00 CET and 2200 MW during the remaining hours. This allowed the coupling between the Spanish and Portuguese markets to reach 57%, higher than the 23% of the previous week, although still far from the levels above 95% registered before the blackout that affected the Iberian Peninsula on April 28.
Regarding daily prices, the Spanish and Nordic markets registered prices below €10/MWh in some sessions of the third week of May. The Nordic market reached the lowest daily average among the analyzed markets, €4.60/MWh, on May 14. This was its lowest daily price since March 23.
As for hourly prices, most European electricity markets registered negative hourly prices in the third week of May. The exceptions were the British and Italian markets. However, the Italian market registered three hours with zero prices in the afternoon of Sunday, May 18. It is the second time this has occurred this year. Previously, no such values had been registered in the Italian market since April 2020.
In the week of May 12, despite the increase in the weekly price of gas and CO₂ emission allowances, the increase in wind energy production contributed to the price declines in markets such as Germany, Portugal and Italy. In contrast, in Spain and France, wind energy production declined, resulting in the highest percentage price increases. In the case of the French market, in addition, electricity demand increased.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the fourth week of May, prices will rise in most major European electricity markets. However, prices will fall in the MIBEL market, influenced by the increase in wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and the rise in solar energy production in the Spanish market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market exceeded $65/bbl in most sessions of the third week of May. On Tuesday, May 13, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $66.63/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 26. Subsequently, prices declined. As a result, on Thursday, May 15, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $64.53/bbl. On Friday, May 16, there was a 1.4% recovery from the previous day. That Friday, the settlement price was $65.41/bbl, up 2.3% from the previous Friday.
The improved outlook for trade relations between China and the United States contributed to Brent oil futures settlement prices exceeding $65/bbl on several occasions during the third week of May. However, the possibility of a US‑Iran nuclear deal that would result in the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, as well as planned OPEC+ production increases, exerted their downward influence on prices, limiting the rises.
As for settlement prices of TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, during the third week of March, they remained above €35/MWh. On Tuesday, May 13, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.74/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since April 9. However, after a 1.9% drop from the previous day, on May 14, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €35.05/MWh. Despite being slightly higher, settlement prices remained below €35.50/MWh in the last two sessions of the week. On Friday, May 16, the settlement price was €35.16/MWh, 1.6% higher than the previous Friday.
The lack of progress in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine exerted its upward influence on TTF gas futures prices. In addition, forecasts of cooler‑than‑usual temperatures for the time of year in northwest Europe from May 22 contributed to the price increase. On the other hand, European reserve levels remain low compared to the previous year.
As for settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, they remained above €70/t during the third week of May. On May 12 and 15, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €73.41/t. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the highest since March 20. However, on Friday, May 16, prices fell by 3.3% from the previous day. On that day, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €70.99/t. Despite the decline, this price was still 0.9% higher than the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
The 55th webinar of the monthly webinar series of AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will take place this Thursday, May 22. Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy, will be the guest speaker of this webinar that will focus on batteries. The webinar will analyze the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and their financial optimization, as well as regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. In addition, there will be the usual analysis of the evolution and prospects of European energy markets.
Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former Minister of the Spanish Government and former President of Red Eléctrica, will participate in the analysis table after the webinar in Spanish. The analysis table will also address hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, as well as transmission and distribution grids.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
