AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, April 29, 2025. In the week of April 21, prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week, especially during the first days of the week. Declining wind energy production drove the increases. At the end of the week prices dropped. On Sunday, April 27, Italy reached its lowest price in the last year and several markets registered negative hourly prices, which in the Iberian market were the lowest in history. Spain, Portugal and Germany reached the highest photovoltaic energy production for a day in April and Italy the second highest in history. TTF gas futures reached the lowest settlement price since July 2024.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
During the week of April 21, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in all major European electricity markets, marking a reversal of the previous week’s declines. The Portuguese market led the percentage growth, with 62%, followed by the Italian and Spanish markets, with increases of 38% and 33%, respectively. The German market registered the lowest growth, with 10%, while the French market registered an increase of 11%.
In the fourth week of April, several European markets set new milestones in solar photovoltaic energy production. On April 22, the Italian market reached the second highest generation in its history, with 141 GWh, after the record registered on April 11. On the same day, the Portuguese market achieved the highest production for an April month, with 22 GWh. A day later, on April 23, the Spanish market broke its record for solar photovoltaic energy generation for an April month, reaching 197 GWh. Finally, on Monday, April 28, the German market registered its highest solar energy production for an April month, with 397 GWh.
For the week of April 28, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts, solar photovoltaic energy production will increase in Germany and decrease in Spain and Italy compared to the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
During the fourth week of April, wind energy production decreased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. Portugal registered the largest percentage decline, 58%, followed by Italy and Spain, with declines of 53% and 45%, respectively. These markets reversed the growth trend registered in the previous week. France showed the smallest reduction, 19%, while Germany cut its production by 39%. Both markets continued the downward trend for the third consecutive week.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts, wind energy production will increase in the Iberian and German markets, while it will decrease in France and Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Electricity demand
During the fourth week of April, electricity demand decreased in most major European markets. Italy led the declines with a decrease of 14%, followed by Portugal and France, which registered drops of 6.0% and 3.4%, respectively. Belgium and Germany showed the smallest declines, 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Germany continued its downward trend for the sixth consecutive week, while Italy and Belgium repeated this behavior for the third and second week, respectively. In contrast, demand increased in Spain and Great Britain. Spain led the increases with a growth of 2.3%, after the falls of the last five weeks, while Great Britain showed a rise of 0.9%.
During the week, average temperatures exceeded those of the previous week in most European markets. Portugal, Spain and Great Britain registered the largest increases, 2.4 °C, 2.1 °C and 1.2 °C, respectively. France and Italy registered a 0.5 °C rise in both cases, while Belgium registered a 0.1 °C increase over the previous week. In Germany, however, average temperatures decreased by 1.0 °C.
The drop in electricity demand in most markets was due to the decrease in work activity during Easter Monday, a national holiday in Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain and Belgium. In Italy and Portugal, the national holiday on Friday, April 25, Freedom Day in Portugal and Liberation Day in Italy, also played a role. In Spain, demand increased due to the recovery of work activity after the previous week’s public holidays, despite the fact that Easter Monday was a public holiday in some autonomous communities.
For the week of April 28, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts, demand will fall in most markets, partly due to the May 1 holiday, International Workers’ Day. On the other hand, demand will recover in Italy.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.
European electricity markets
In the fourth week of April, average prices in most major European electricity markets increased compared to the previous week. The increases were primarily during the first days of the week, while prices fell over the weekend. This helped the weekly average of the EPEX SPOT market of Germany to be virtually unchanged from the previous week, down only 0.01%. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries and the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal registered the largest percentage price increases, 139%, 177% and 181%, respectively. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 1.3% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and 59% in the EPEX SPOT market of France. In contrast, the IPEX market of Italy registered a 13% fall in weekly prices.
In the week of April 21, despite the price increases, weekly averages remained below €85/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the Italian market and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom, whose averages were €88.95/MWh and €93.48/MWh, respectively. On the other hand, the Portuguese and Spanish markets had the lowest weekly averages, €36.20/MWh and €37.63/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €53.24/MWh in the Nordic market to €82.61/MWh in the German market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, April 27, they were below €35/MWh in most major European electricity markets. On that day, the Italian market reached the highest average, €62.58/MWh. Despite being the highest price compared to the rest of the main European markets, this daily price was the lowest in the Italian market since April 8, 2024.
As for hourly prices, most markets registered negative hourly prices in the fourth week of April. On Sunday, April 27, the Portuguese and Spanish markets reached their historical minimum hourly prices. The Portuguese market price was ‑€5.00/MWh from 11:00 to 15:00, while the Spanish market price was ‑€6.01/MWh from 15:00 to 16:00. On the same day, from 13:00 to 14:00, the Belgian market reached the lowest hourly price of the week, ‑€266.00/MWh. This price was the lowest in the Belgian market since June 9, 2019. Also on that day and in that time period, the German and Dutch markets reached their lowest prices since May 13, 2024, which were ‑€129.81/MWh and ‑€189.90/MWh, respectively.
In the week of April 21, the decline in wind energy production led to higher weekly prices in most European electricity markets. In addition, in the British and Spanish markets, electricity demand increased. On the other hand, the increase in solar energy production, as well as the fall in demand, contributed to lower prices in the Italian market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of May, prices will fall in most European electricity markets, influenced by falling electricity demand and increased wind energy production. In the German market, solar energy production will also increase considerably.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.
Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $67.44/bbl, on Tuesday, April 22. On the other hand, after a 2.0% drop, on April 23, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $66.12/bbl. In the last two sessions of the week, prices rose slightly. As a result, on Friday, April 25, these futures reached a settlement price of $66.87/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 1.6% lower than that of the last session of the previous week. However, the weekly average of settlement prices was 1.2% higher than the previous week.
Uncertainty about the evolution of global oil demand due to trade tensions continued to influence the evolution of Brent oil futures prices in the fourth week of April. The possibility of further OPEC+ production increases in June contributed to settlement prices remaining below $67/bbl in most sessions of the fourth week of April. A stronger dollar also exerted its downward influence on prices.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, on Monday, April 21, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €35.66/MWh. However, during the fourth week of April, prices registered a downward trend. As a result, on Friday, April 25, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €32.43/MWh. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was the lowest since July 26, 2024.
Reduced demand due to rising temperatures supported lower TTF gas futures prices in the fourth week of April. In addition, stable supply allowed European reserves to continue to increase.
Regarding settlement prices of CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2025, on Tuesday, April 22, these futures reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €64.39/t. After a 3.9% increase over the previous day, on April 23, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €66.90/t. In the last two sessions of the week, settlement prices were slightly lower, but remained above €66/t. On Friday, April 25, the settlement price was €66.43/t. According to the data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price was 0.8% higher than that of the last session of the previous week. However, the weekly average of settlement prices for the fourth week of April was 0.6% lower than that of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe and batteries
On Thursday, May 22, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 55th webinar in its monthly webinar series, which will be focused on batteries. This event will feature Javier Adiego Orera, CEO and co‑founder of 7C Energy. The webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, the importance of demand and secondary band forecasts, the benefits according to the degree of battery use and the financial optimization of batteries, as well as regulatory issues of energy storage, including subsidies and capacity payments. Subsequently, the analysis table of the webinar in Spanish will address hybridization with wind energy and ancillary services, as well as transmission and distribution grids. For this purpose, this table will also include the participation of Kiko Maza, Managing Director at WeMake Consultores, and Luis Atienza Serna, former minister of the Spanish Government and former president of Red Eléctrica.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
