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It is necessary to analyse the current situation in the energy markets with a long term vision

AleaSoft, May 11, 2021. The energy markets are boiling. The CO2 emission rights prices do not stop rising, neither do the electricity futures in the mid‑term. At times like these, the spot markets fluctuate widely with the variability of the renewable energies. The current situation of the energy markets in Europe and a more long‑term vision for the sector based on price forecasts will be the topics that will be analysed in the next AleaSoft’s webinar.

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This next Thursday, May 13, the webinar organised by AleaSoft “Prospects for the energy markets in Europe. The price forecasting and its importance for the development of the renewable energies. Vision of the future” will be held, for which an invitation can be requested at this link. The AleaSoft speakers will be Oriol Saltó i Bauzà, Head of Data Analysis and Modelling, Alejandro Delgado, CTO, and Antonio Delgado Rigal, CEO. This webinar is the first part of a series that will be complemented with a second webinar on June 10.

The current situation of the energy markets

As usual, the evolution of the energy markets in recent weeks will be analysed in the webinar. A situation marked by the tremendous upward race in CO2 emission rights prices, which are already above €52 per tonne. These prices are causing a sharp rise in electricity futures which, for the OMIP market for Spain, placed the prices for the last two quarters of 2021 above €70/MWh and the futures for 2022, close to €64/MWh.

This situation is generating concern among the large consumers and electrointensives, obviously, due to the increase in costs that it entails. But also the renewable energies are being affected due to the uncertainty that this market situation creates in the stability of their mid‑ and long‑term plans. Proof of this are the delicate situations that some renewable energy companies experienced in the stock markets in recent days or the postponement of the listing of some companies in the sector.

In the webinar, the AleaSoft experts will explain their vision of the future of the market and its prices, with the intention of transmitting a message of serenity and optimism to a sector, that of the energy, which, on the other hand, has been one of the most robust and resilient during this COVID‑19 crisis.

The importance of the price forecasting for the renewable energies

For the renewable energy projects, obtaining the financing for the construction and start up of the plants is one of the most critical and complicated aspects. For this, it is necessary to have a clear vision of the electricity market and its prices during the lifetime of the installation. A vision backed by a reliable long‑term market price forecasting that provides an estimate of the return on investment. This need is very important in times like the present, when the current uncertainty can shake that important clear vision of the future.

But these moments of high prices can represent a good opportunity for the renewable energies as long as they are framed within an energy sales strategy. With a well‑designed strategy and supported by prices forecasts in all time horizons, it is possible to mitigate the market prices risk and take advantage of favourable times of high prices like the current one.

The challenge of the transport decarbonisation

Regarding the vision of the future of the energy sector, among the challenges of completely decarbonising the economy, or making it neutral in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, one of the most ambitious is the decarbonisation of the transport sector. In Spain, this sector is responsible for a third of the GHG emissions, and, within this third, more than 90% come from the road transport.

So the hydrogen fuel cell and electric vehicles will be key pieces in this challenge of the decarbonisation. Currently, these vehicles are still perceived as a relatively luxury item. This must and will change over time, as the technology improves, the prices fall and the change is encouraged with aids.

The forecasts for the large consumers, the decarbonisation of the industry and the role of the green hydrogen

In the second part of this series of webinars, scheduled for June 10, the AleaSoft experts will analyse the most recent movements in the energy markets again and will delve into the importance of the forecasts for the large consumers and electrointensives and the risk management, the decarbonisation of the industrial sector and the role that the green hydrogen will play in it.

The green hydrogen is destined to be the fuel of the future, replacing the fossil fuels in all sectors and as an energy vector to transport and store energy in large quantities. Its production from renewable energies is going to have a significant impact on the electricity markets and during the webinar its role in avoiding critical aspects such as the renewable energy curtailments and the cannibalisation of the prices will be analysed.

Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.


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