AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, July 13, 2026. In the second week of July, weekly average prices increased in most major European electricity markets, with Portugal and Spain registering the largest rises. Lower wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy, together with higher gas prices, drove this trend. France, Spain and Italy set all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production, while Brent oil and TTF gas futures rebounded amid tensions between the United States and Iran.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of July 6, solar photovoltaic energy production increased across the main European electricity markets compared with the previous week. France registered the largest increase, at 14%, followed by Germany, at 13%, and Italy, at 9.9%. Production increased by 7.6% in Portugal and 6.3% in Spain. Portugal registered increases for the second consecutive week, while Spain continued its upward trend for the fourth week.
During the week, France, Spain and Italy set all‑time records for solar photovoltaic energy production. France reached its all‑time high on Monday, July 6, with 199 GWh. Spain set its record on July 8, with 277 GWh, and Italy reached its record on July 10, with 167 GWh. Portugal and Germany set records for solar photovoltaic energy production for a July day. Portugal reached its high on July 7, with 34 GWh, while Germany reached its high on July 10, with 494 GWh. This figure also marked Germany’s second‑highest daily solar photovoltaic energy production on record.
For the week of July 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to increases in Germany and Italy and a decline in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.In the second week of July, wind energy production increased from the previous week in Germany and France, by 11% and 22%, respectively. Germany registered increases for the second consecutive week, while France continued its upward trend for the third week. In contrast, wind energy production fell in the Iberian Peninsula and Italy. Portugal registered the largest decline, at 57%, followed by Spain, at 54%, and Italy, at 45%.
On July 7, Germany set an all‑time record for wind energy production for a July day, with 788 GWh.
For the week of July 13, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to a recovery in Portugal, Spain and Italy, and declines in Germany and France.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the second week of July, electricity demand increased from the previous week in most major European electricity markets. Great Britain registered the largest increase, at 5.9%, followed by France, at 5.6%, and Spain, at 4.5%. Belgium and Italy registered increases of 3.9% and 2.8%, respectively. In contrast, demand fell by 1.2% in Germany and 5.1% in Portugal. Germany registered declines for the second consecutive week.
During the week, average temperatures increased in most of the analyzed markets. Great Britain registered the largest increase, at 3.9 °C, followed by France, at 3.5 °C, and Belgium, at 3.2 °C. Average temperatures increased by 0.7 °C in Spain and 0.1 °C in Germany. In contrast, they fell by 1.1 °C in Portugal and 0.3 °C in Italy.
For the third week of July, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in Italy and Belgium. In contrast, the forecasts indicate declines in the Iberian Peninsula, France, Germany and Great Britain. France’s National Day on July 14 will contribute to lower electricity demand in the French market.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, Red Eléctrica, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
Daily prices in the main European markets rose sharply in the second week of July, especially in the Iberian Peninsula. As a result, weekly averages increased in most major European electricity markets. The Portuguese market registered the largest percentage price increase, at 70%, followed by the Spanish market, at 61%. In the other markets that registered increases, prices rose from 6.8% in the Italian market to 18% in the French market. The Nordic market also registered a 7.1% increase. In contrast, prices fell in the German, Belgian and Dutch markets, by 6.7%, 3.3% and 6.0%, respectively.
In the week of July 6, the Italian market registered the highest weekly average, €144.09/MWh, followed by the British market, €118.92/MWh, and the Belgian market, €108.38/MWh. Prices in the Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish and German markets ranged from €98.33/MWh in Germany to €107.68/MWh in Portugal. The French market registered an average of €92.42/MWh, while the Nordic market registered the lowest weekly average, €56.68/MWh.
Regarding daily prices, the Nordic market registered prices below €45/MWh on several occasions during the second week of July. On July 12, this market reached the lowest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €39.86/MWh. In the other markets, daily prices remained above €70/MWh throughout the second week of July.
Daily prices also exceeded €100/MWh during some sessions of the second week of July in most European electricity markets, with the Nordic market as the only exception. On July 9, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €153.73/MWh. On July 8, the Portuguese market registered its highest price since March 11, €123.12/MWh. The Spanish market reached its highest price since the same date on July 10, with an average of €117.85/MWh. Prices rose further in both markets on Monday, July 13, but remained below the levels registered on March 10.
In the second week of July, higher gas and CO₂ emission allowance prices pushed prices upward across European electricity markets. The sharp drop in wind energy production in Spain, Portugal and Italy drove price increases in those markets. In France and Great Britain, higher electricity demand also contributed to rising prices. In contrast, higher wind and solar photovoltaic energy production in Germany helped lower prices in that market.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices will increase in the main European electricity markets during the third week of July, as demand rises in some markets. Wind energy production will fall in Germany and France, while solar energy production will decline in Spain. Gas prices will also shape price trends across European electricity markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $71.99/bbl, on Monday, July 6, virtually matching the previous Friday’s level. Prices rebounded during the week and reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $78.02/bbl, on July 8. Prices declined slightly during the final two sessions of the week. On Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at $76.01/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price exceeded the previous Friday’s price by 5.4%.
Brent oil futures prices rebounded during the second week of July because tensions between the United States and Iran intensified. Both countries launched new military attacks during the weekend before the start of the week, renewing concerns about continued maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around 20% of global oil and gas trade. This disruption maintained a risk premium in crude oil prices, even as the United States and Iran continued technical and peace talks throughout the week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €44.13/MWh, on Monday, July 6, 2.4% below the previous Friday’s level. Prices rose steadily throughout the week and reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €50.10/MWh, on Thursday, July 9. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked the highest price since May 20. On Friday, July 10, the settlement price reached €48.66/MWh, 7.6% above the previous Friday’s price.
TTF gas futures prices also rose during the second week of July because hostilities between the United States and Iran intensified and threatened liquefied natural gas traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The new military attacks between the two countries increased perceived risks to LNG supplies from the Persian Gulf and pushed prices upward during much of the week. On Friday, July 10, prices declined slightly after signs indicated that the United States and Iran continued diplomatic talks. However, European gas inventory levels remained below the five‑year seasonal average and continued to support prices above €48/MWh.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €81.81/t, on Monday, July 6. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price exceeded the previous Friday’s level by 1.5% and marked the highest level since February 5. Prices subsequently declined and reached their weekly minimum settlement price, €79.04/t, on July 8. On Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at €79.21/t, 1.7% below the previous Friday’s level.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, July 9, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting held the 68th edition of its monthly webinar series. The session reviewed the evolution and prospects of European energy markets, and addressed the current situation and prospects of PPA, the financing of renewable energy and storage projects, as well as the prospects for energy storage and opportunities for hybridization with renewable energy and self‑consumption. The webinar panel discussion, held in Spanish, featured Pedro González, Director‑General of AEGE, and Roger Font, Managing Director Project Finance Energy at Banco Sabadell.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
