AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 11, 2026. In the first week of May, weekly average prices in the main European electricity markets rose compared to the previous week and, in most cases, exceeded €100/MWh. Lower wind energy production across much of Europe, rising demand and higher CO2 prices supported this trend. Spain and France set photovoltaic energy production records for a May day, while TTF gas and Brent futures declined.
Solar photovoltaic and wind energy production
In the week of May 4, solar photovoltaic energy production increased in the Iberian Peninsula and France. The Spanish market registered the largest increase, 10%, followed by growth of 8.8% in the Portuguese market and 5.9% in the French market. In contrast, the German and Italian markets registered declines. The German market showed the steepest drop, 30%, reversing the upward trend of the previous two weeks. Meanwhile, the Italian market fell by 18% and completed its second consecutive week of declining photovoltaic energy production.
During the week, the Spanish and French markets reached all‑time highs for photovoltaic energy production for a May day. On May 6, the Spanish market registered its highest‑ever solar photovoltaic energy production for a May day, 229 GWh. Meanwhile, on Friday, May 8, the French market reached its highest production for a May day, 160 GWh.
For the week of May 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s solar energy forecasts point to a recovery in production in the German, Spanish and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.During the first week of May, wind energy production increased in the Iberian markets compared to the previous week. The Portuguese market registered the largest increase, 171%, while the Spanish market completed its second consecutive week of growth, with a 3.1% increase. In contrast, the German, French and Italian markets registered declines in wind energy production. The German market showed the steepest drop, 41%, followed by a 36% decline in the French market. Both markets extended their downward trend for a second consecutive week. Meanwhile, the Italian market extended its downward trend for a third consecutive week, with a 2.0% decline.
In the second week of May, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s wind energy forecasts point to higher production in the German, Italian, Spanish and French markets. In contrast, the Portuguese market will register lower wind energy production.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electricity demand
In the week of May 11, electricity demand increased in the main European markets compared to the previous week. The German and Italian markets registered the largest increases, 7.3% and 6.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Belgian market showed the smallest increase, 1.0%, while the French, Portuguese, British and Spanish markets registered increases ranging from 2.5% in France to 3.5% in Spain.
During the week, average temperatures declined in most of these markets. France registered the largest drop, 2.0 °C, while Great Britain and Belgium showed the smallest decline, 1.7 °C in both cases. The Iberian Peninsula registered decreases of 1.8 °C in Spain and 1.9 °C in Portugal. In contrast, Germany and Italy broke the trend, with temperature increases of 0.4 °C and 0.9 °C, respectively.
The return to regular business activity after the May 1 public holiday, International Workers’ Day, mainly drove higher demand in most of these markets. In addition, lower temperatures compared to the previous week contributed to higher electricity demand in many of them.
For the week of May 11, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s demand forecasts point to increases in the French, Spanish and Italian markets. On the other hand, demand will decline in the German, British, Belgian and Portuguese markets. In Germany and Belgium, the May 14 national holiday, Ascension Thursday, which France also observes, will contribute to lower demand.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
During the first week of May, daily prices in the main European electricity markets were higher than the previous week. Although prices declined at the end of the week, they remained above the levels registered on May 1 in most cases. As a result, weekly average prices increased compared to the previous week in the main European electricity markets. The Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the smallest increases, 4.9% and 6.6%, respectively. In contrast, the French market reached the largest percentage price increase, 494%. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices rose between 13% in the British market and 82% in the German and Nordic markets.
In the week of May 4, weekly averages exceeded €100/MWh in most European electricity markets. The Portuguese, Spanish and French markets formed the exceptions, with averages of €58.88/MWh, €59.76/MWh and €73.95/MWh, respectively. Meanwhile, the Italian market reached the highest weekly average, €131.47/MWh. In the other markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices ranged from €100.68/MWh in the Nordic market to €119.45/MWh in the British market.
Regarding daily prices, the Portuguese market reached the lowest average of the week among the analyzed markets, €19.57/MWh, on Sunday, May 10. That same day, the Spanish and French markets also registered daily prices below €25/MWh, at €20.84/MWh and €21.22/MWh, respectively. The remaining markets stayed above €65/MWh throughout the first week of May.
Meanwhile, the Italian and British markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh throughout the first week of May. The German, Belgian and Dutch markets registered daily prices above €100/MWh from Monday through Friday. The French and Nordic markets also reached prices above €100/MWh in some sessions of the first week of May. On May 6, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week among the analyzed markets, €146.46/MWh. Meanwhile, on May 7, the Portuguese and Spanish markets reached their highest prices since March 12, €86.48/MWh and €86.90/MWh, respectively. That same day, the Nordic market reached its highest price since February 11, €134.03/MWh.
In the week of May 4, the increase in the weekly price of CO2 emission allowances, lower wind energy production in most markets and higher demand pushed European electricity market prices upward. In addition, solar energy production declined in the German and Italian markets. In contrast, higher wind and solar energy production in the Iberian Peninsula helped the Spanish and Portuguese markets register the smallest percentage price increases.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that prices could decline in European electricity markets during the second week of May, supported by the recovery in wind energy production across most markets. In addition, demand will decline in some markets. On the other hand, gas price movements will continue to influence European electricity market prices.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, RTE, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO2
Brent oil futures for the Front‑Month in the ICE market reached their weekly maximum settlement price, $114.44/bbl, on Monday, May 4. During the week, prices declined. On Thursday, May 7, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, $100.06/bbl. On Friday, May 8, the settlement price stood at $101.29/bbl. According to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price still was 6.4% lower than the previous Friday.
Although the escalation of hostilities exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices in some sessions of the first week of May, the prospect of an agreement between the United States and Iran contributed to prices registering a predominantly downward trend during that week.
As for TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front‑Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €48.14/MWh, on Monday, May 4. Prices then declined. On Thursday, May 7, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €43.56/MWh. On Friday, May 8, the settlement price increased slightly to €44.14/MWh. However, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price still remained 3.5% lower than the previous Friday’s level.
During the first week of May, expectations of an agreement between the United States and Iran that would allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supported the decline in TTF gas futures prices.
Regarding CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the reference contract of December 2026, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price, €73.06/t, on Monday, May 4. During the rest of the first week of May, settlement prices remained above €75/t. On May 6, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price, €76.07/t. In the last sessions of the week, settlement prices stayed below €75.25/t. On Friday, May 8, the settlement price was €75.20/t. However, according to data analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this price still remained 1.9% higher than the last session of the previous week.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis on the prospects for energy markets in Europe
On Thursday, May 21, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting will hold the 66th edition of its monthly webinar series. This edition will feature Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy communicator and consultant, as guest speaker. The webinar will analyze the evolution and prospects of European energy markets and their impact on energy storage. It will also examine the role of batteries, storage and hybridization in the electricity system, along with revenues, opportunities and success case studies in hybridization.
Source: AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
