Gas and CO2 rise again, driving up European electricity markets prices despite photovoltaic records
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 19, 2023. Gas and CO2 prices rose for the second consecutive week, causing a general increase in European electricity markets prices. CO2 futures exceeded €90/t, something that had not happened since April. The increase in demand and lower wind energy production in several markets also led to increased prices in the […]
Price equilibrium of energy markets in the long term
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 16, 2023. The energy transition requires coherent long‑term forecasts based on a scientifically based methodology. Long‑term price equilibrium is a key aspect of energy markets. Any long‑term forecasting methodology that does not take into account this fundamental aspect of the markets will not provide reliable forecasts. The use of Artificial Intelligence […]
Gas prices rose after several weeks of declines, dragging European Electricity markets
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 12, 2023. In the second week of June, gas prices rose after keeping a downward trend since the second week of April. This, along with the increase in demand and in CO2 prices, led to the increase of prices in most of the European electricity markets. Even so, negative prices were […]
The complex interplay of the energy transition (II)
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 9, 2023. In this second instalment of the news series on the main vectors of the energy transition, five more vectors are analysed. Three of them are related to energy storage (batteries, pumping stations and solar thermoelectric energy), and the other two are international interconnections and smart grids. In the first […]
European energy markets prices went down in the first week of June, but in MIBEL they rose and are the highest
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 5, 2023. In the first week of June, prices of most European electricity markets fell and some negative prices were registered, thanks to the decrease in demand and prices of gas and CO2, and to the increase of renewable energy production in some cases. However, prices rose in the Nord Pool […]
The complex interplay of the energy transition (I)
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 2, 2023. If one had to list just fifteen factors that will be key to achieving decarbonisation, they would be: wind energy, solar photovoltaic energy, renewable energy demand, green hydrogen, transmission and distribution grids, batteries, pumping, solar thermoelectric energy, international interconnections, smart grids, appropriate regulation, biofuels, biomass, CO2 capture and storage, […]
Renewable energy production up and demand and prices down in May
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, June 2, 2023. The month of May, 2023, was characterised in the European markets by a continuation of the downward trend in electricity demand while wind energy production and photovoltaic energy production continue to grow. This situation, together with a downward trend in gas and CO2 emission rights prices, drove prices down […]
Negative prices continue to appear in the electricity markets while gas prices continue to fall and solar photovoltaic energy production sets new records
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 29, 2023. Gas and CO2 prices continued their downward trend in the fourth week of May, which led to a general downward trend in prices in European electricity markets and several negative hourly prices were registered, which reached -€400/MWh in Netherlands. The notable exception of the Iberian market, with a rise […]
Probabilistic metrics in long‑term electricity markets price curves forecasting
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 26, 2023. What are probabilistic metrics and how can they be used? When modelling energy markets prices for forecasting over several decades of horizon, it is important to understand how these markets work in the long term in order to use the most appropriate methodology. This news item describes probabilistic metrics […]
New episodes of negative or zero prices in European electricity markets
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 22, 2023. In the third week of May, negative or zero hourly prices were registered in most of the European electricity markets, especially during the weekend. In the Nord Pool market, the value of -€5.67/MWh registered in an hour of Sunday 21 is the lowest one in history. For the week as […]
The causes of the electricity demand drop in April to beginning of the century levels
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. May 19, 2023. The electricity demand in Mainland Spain was at levels from more than two decades ago, if the period of lockdown during the COVID crisis is not taken into account. This article analyses the main causes that led to this extraordinary drop in demand, including the destruction of industrial demand […]
Photovoltaic and wind energy are unstoppable in Europe in 2023
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, May 18, 2023. Between January 1 and May 15, 2023, photovoltaic energy production records were registered in almost all main European electricity markets when compared to the production of this period of the previous five years. These records are the result of the increase in installed capacity registered by this technology. The […]