Long-term energy demand forecasting

AleaSoft provides long-term energy demand forecasting, with a time horizon of up to 40 years and granularity monthly or annual. These forecasts include various types: total demand, minimum and maximum hourly demand for the month or year, and high and low voltage demand at both national and regional level.

The forecasts are provided in product format and service format.

• The product format consists of the installation of an application that works automatically for both data updating and forecast generation. The application includes tools for calculating confidence bands, defining temperature and socioeconomic scenarios, and analysing the sensitivity of demand to temperature and economic changes.

• The service format consists of the delivery of updated demand forecasts, with the option to include confidence bands in the forecast.

The main explanatory variables used are meteorological data such as temperature, economic indicators such as economic growth (GDP) and industrial activity (IIP), as well as demographic evolution (population) and labour activity. The scenarios for technologies expected to develop in the coming years are also considered, such as electric vehicles, batteries and electrical self-consumption, and their impact on demand volume.

These forecasts are useful for long-term energy planning, as well as for financing of renewable energy projects. Therefore, they are highly useful for virtually all actors in the electricity sector: Transmission System Operators (TSO), regulators, IPP, utilities, control centres, traders, distributors, renewable energy developers and investors.

AleaSoft’s scientific methodology, which combines Artificial Intelligence, time series and statistical techniques, has demonstrated its quality and accuracy over more than 27 years of experience.