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Energy price forecasting

AleaSoft developed an energy forecasting methodology that is unique, guaranteeing the highest degree of efficiency and accuracy. This methodology has been in use for more than 25 years in some of the most important companies in the energy sector in Europe. More than 400 models that have been obtained with this methodology are in service in different European markets.

AleaSoft supplies electricity and gas markets prices forecasts in the short, medium and long term in most European markets, providing services to traders, retailers, large consumers, utilities, renewable energy developers, banks and investment funds. Main European electricity markets: MIBEL (Spain and Portugal), EPEX SPOT (FranceGermany and AustriaBelgiumThe Netherlands,  Switzerland, Luxembourg and United Kingdom), IPEX (Italy), Nord Pool Spot (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia), SEM (Ireland), POLPX (Poland), OPCOM (Romania), N2EX (United Kingdom), CROPEX (Croatia), HEnEx (Greece), OTE (Czech Republic), HUPX (Hungary), OKTE (Slovakia), SEEPEX (Serbia), EPEX SPOT SEE (Bosnia and Herzegovina), IBEX (Bulgaria), CSE (Cyprus), BSP Southpool (Slovenia), Landsnet (Iceland), MEMO (North Macedonia), MEX (Malta) and MEPX (Montenegro). AleaSoft also supplies forecasting services in some American markets such as SEN (Chile).

AleaSoft complements the energy prices forecasts with forecasts of other related variables that are also of interest for those interested in the market, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), demand, production by technology (wind, hydro and solar), meteorological variables, exchange rate, economic indices, and in general of all the variables that influence the energy price.

For the long‑term prices forecasts, the use of renewable energy production penetration scenarios, especially of wind and photovoltaic energy, is of particular interest.

The prices forecasting reports have as output the expected prices values and the confidence bands with the associated probabilities.

AleaSoft offers the following energy price forecasting products and services:

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